COVID Vaccination and Age-Stratified All-Cause Mortality Risk

Accurate estimates of the rates of COVID vaccine-induced severe adverse events and deaths per some standard of population size are critical for risk-benefit ratio analyses of vaccination and boosters against SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus in different age groups. However, existing surveillance studies are not designed to reliably estimate life-threatening events, or vaccine-induced mortality risks. Here, regional variations in the vaccination rates were used to predict all-cause mortality and non-COVID deaths in subsequent time periods using two independent, publicly available datasets from the US and Europe (month- and week-level resolutions, respectively). Vaccination correlated negatively with European mortality 6-20 weeks post-injection, while vaccination predicted all-cause mortality 0-5 weeks post-injection in almost all age groups and with an age-related temporal pattern consistent with the US vaccine rollout. Results from fitted regression slopes (p < 0.05 corrected for false discovery rate) suggest a US national average vaccination mortality rate (VMR) of 0.04% (0.0244, 0.0474 95% CI) and higher VMR with age (lower bound estimates of VMR=0.005% (0.0028, 0.0080 95% CI) in ages 0-17 increasing to 0.06% (0.0108, 0.0859 95% CI) in ages >75 years), and 146K to 187K vaccine-associated US deaths between February and August, 2021. Notably, adult vaccination correlated with increased subsequent mortality of unvaccinated younger people (<18, US; <15, Europe), possibly reflecting adverse effects indirectly caused by shedding of vaccine components. Comparing our estimates with the CDC-reported vaccine-induced mortality risk (0.002%) suggests VAERS deaths are underreported by a factor of 20, consistent with known VAERS under-ascertainment bias. Comparing our age-stratified VMRs with published age-stratified coronavirus infection fatality rates suggests the risks of the COVID vaccines and boosters outweigh the benefits in children, young adults, and older adults with low occupational risk, or with previous coronavirus exposure. Our findings raise important questions about current COVID mass vaccination strategies and warrant further investigation and review.