The Cost of Energy in Russia and Prospects for Accelerated Economic Growth

The article assesses the scale of the impact of energy costs on the implementation of scenarios for the development of the Russian economy: planned (with an average annual GDP growth of about 3%) and accelerated (with GDP growth rates of about 4%). The main factors of uncertainty are the growth rates of electricity prices, which are formed under different pricing policies in the domestic gas market. Model results of the impact of rising gas prices on the conditions of interfuel competition in the production of electricity and centralized heat are presented. For pricing policy options in the gas market, cost-optimized parameters of the production program for the development of power plants and boiler houses are presented (at different levels of demand for electricity in the planned and accelerated economic development scenarios). The volumes of investment needs of the industry, as well as the volumes of required gross revenue, have been determined. The article presents the results of applying an input-output simulation multiagent model to assess the macroeconomic consequences of the transition to higher dynamics of gas and electricity prices with an assessment of the impact on GDP and inflation.