Urban crime and environmental triggers: A five-year analysis of reported offences in Porto's historic centre

Crime, especially urban criminality, remains a relevant issue for academics, stakeholders and citizens. Traditionally safety has been addressed as a justice and human right issue but has evolved to become a public health concern and a restraint for the sustainability of cities. This work explores the associations between crime and seasonality, and between crime and weather on the frequency of reported crime in the Historic Centre of Porto a north coastal city of Portugal that has been experiencing a considerable evolution in the last decades. Officially reported crime against property and crime against people was analysed in the Historic Centre of Porto between 2015 and 2019. Results from the descriptive and inferential statistics show that crimes against property, especially theft, are more frequent than those against people, especially theft. Overall crime was reported mainly during the Summer and Spring, while the lowest prevalence was reported during the Winter - an association between temperature and overall criminality was found being graphically depicted with an inverted U shape. Nonetheless, overall crime seems to be negatively affected by rainfall. There were significant differences between crime types. This study highlights the interplay between crime, urban environment and weather effects as factors contributing to cities sustainability. • Seasonal and climatic factors shape crime patterns in Porto's heritage area. • Theft peaks in Spring/Summer; aggression follows similar trends. • Rainy and colder days correlate with fewer crimes in tourist-heavy areas. • Property crime dominates, especially in central, high-traffic city zones. • Climate-sensitive urban policies may help reduce victimisation rates.