Assessment and forecasting of the dynamics of sedimentation of shipping channels in the waters of the Northern Sea Route

The assessment and forecasting of the dynamics of sedimentation in shipping channels is a crucial aspect of ensuring year-round navigation for large-tonnage vessels in the waters of the Northern Sea Route, as the Arctic seas and the straits connecting them — especially in the eastern sector — are shallow and require dredging to maintain guaranteed safe depths. This paper describes a developed method for assessing and forecasting the dynamics of sedimentation in shipping channels within the waters of the Northern Sea Route. The main features of dredging conditions in the Arctic seas are highlighted, including the presence of ice for 8–9 months each year, during which dredging is impossible, and a short (3–4 month) period of open water when dredging becomes feasible, while transport vessels and icebreakers navigate the channels year-round. In addition to traditional factors influencing sedimentation processes in sea channels, such as wind-wave phenomena and currents, the propellers of large-tonnage transport vessels and powerful icebreakers also exert a significant impact. This is due to the considerable draft of vessels and the shallow depths of the channels. The theoretical basis of the sedimentation model is presented, which is based on experimental data obtained from bottom relief surveys using multibeam echo sounders. The stages of processing field data for their preparation and application in the mathematical model of sedimentation are detailed. The results of forecasting the calculated sedimentation volumes and their corresponding confidence intervals are provided.