Cutting through market trends: the impact of macroeconomy, COVID-19 pandemic, and climate-related disasters costs on wood product prices in North America

The market of wood products is the primary system used to assess the value of timber. Understanding its dynamics could help in forecasting future trends and guiding decision-makers on what and when to harvest, enabling better market anticipation. Previous research has mainly studied wood products prices through general indices, which does not allow differentiation of wood products based on their dimensions, key information that can be linked with the structure of forest stands. We examined how macroeconomic variables, the coronavirus disease of 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, and climate-related disasters costs affected the prices of eight wood products (seven softwood lumber products and one oriented strand board) in North America. We fitted first-order autoregressive models with a variance function, on time series of prices recorded between 1990 and 2023. We found that, contrary to common assumptions, price changes cannot be attributed to the same variables, nor do these variables impact prices with the same magnitude across different products. Moreover, disruptive events, such as the COVID-19 pandemic, mainly contributed to uncertainty without entirely determining prices. Such findings can help link the value of standing trees, based on the products they can generate, and therefore inform on optimal silviculture and harvesting strategies.