HELIOECONOMIC THEORY OF CYCLES: SOLAR ACTIVITY AS A SYNCHRONIZER OF GLOBAL ECONOMIC FLUCTUATIONS

The article presents a helioeconomic theory of cycles, according to which long-term fluctuations in solar activity (the Wolf number) act as a fundamental exogenous synchronizer of global economic cycles. A composite index, HELI, is proposed that integrates solar activity data, macroeconomic indicators, and exogenous shocks. Empirical analysis using data from major economies shows that economic peaks and troughs are synchronized with solar cycle highs and lows. The HELI index explains up to 78% of the variance in economic cycles and outperforms traditional indicators in predicting recessions. The results demonstrate the importance of integrating astrophysical data into macroeconomic analysis to improve forecasting accuracy and risk management.