Trends in the Burden of Periodontal Disease in China and Globally from 1990 to 2021 and 2035 Forecast: A GBD 2021 Study Analysis

Background: Periodontal disease is a widespread and severe public health issue globally. Using the latest data from Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2021, this study conducted a systematic analysis of the burden of periodontal disease in China and worldwide from 1990 to 2021. Methods: Data on number and age-standardized rates (ASR) of periodontal disease were extracted from GBD 2021 and stratified analyzed by gender, age group, and geographic location (China and globally). Temporal trends were assessed using joinpoint regression analyses, while the Bayesian age-period-cohort model with nested Laplace approximation was applied to predict the disease burden by 2035. Results: Compared to 1990, the incidence number of periodontal disease in China and globally increased by over 70% in 2021, while prevalence and disability-adjusted life years numbers increased by more than 90%. The ASR of periodontal disease burden decreased in China but increased globally. In terms of age distribution, the burden of periodontal disease initially increased and then declined with age; from 1990 to 2021, the age peak of certain burden-related indicators shifted to older age groups. Concerning gender distribution, the burden was higher among younger and middle-aged men, whereas in women, the burden among middle-aged and elderly populations gradually surpassed that of men. By 2035, the burden of periodontal disease is expected to increase further. Conclusion: Our findings indicate that the burden of periodontal disease continues to rise, which is associated with global population growth, lifestyle and dietary changes, and aging.