The Evolution Characteristics and Trend Prediction of the Disease Burden of Asthma in China and Globally

Background: Asthma is a common chronic inflammatory airway disease. This study assessed the disease burden of asthma in China and globally from 1990 to 2021 and predicted future trends, aiming to provide a evidence for prevention and control strategies. Methods: Using the GBD database, a descriptive analysis of asthma burden data was conducted in China and globally, covering the changing trends of incidence, prevalence, mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), as well as the distribution characteristics in terms of age and gender. Joinpoint regression analysis was employed to further explore the epidemiological characteristics, and eight machine learning algorithms were fitted to predict the future trends. Results: From 1990 to 2021, the overall burden in both China and globally decreased. However, the global number of deaths increased by 16.51%. In terms of age, children, adolescents, and the elderly (≥60 years) all faced an extremely high burden. Regarding gender, the burden on males in most age groups in China was higher than that on females, while the pattern was reversed globally. Among the eight algorithms, the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average algorithm performed the best. Predictions show that by 2050, the age-standardized rate of incidence, prevalence, and DALYs of asthma globally will show an upward trend, while the age-standardized mortality rate will decline. In China, the situation is contrary to that of the global trend. Conclusion: Over the past 32 years, although the asthma burden in China and globally has declined, the burden remains substantial. This study recommends strengthening attention to asthma management in children, adolescents, the elderly, and women during critical life stages, optimizing healthcare resources, enhancing international cooperation, and increasing investment in increasing investment in resource-limited regions to alleviate the asthma burden.