DEVELOPMENT OF AN ECONOMETRIC MODEL FOR ASSESSING THE EFFECTIVENESS OF STATE AUDIT

In the context of increasing demands for transparency and efficiency in public financial management, the development of quantitative tools for evaluating the effectiveness of auditing activities becomes particularly significant. This study presents an econometric model designed to analyze the impact of audit inspections on the use of budgetary funds. The methodological basis of the research is a multiple regression model, in which the independent variables include the volume of detected financial violations, audit expenditures, inspection frequency, and macroeconomic indicators. The study utilizes official statistical sources from 2015 to 2023, enabling an analysis of trends and the identification of key dependencies. The research results confirm a significant correlation between detected financial violations and the effectiveness of the budgetary process. It was established that an increase in financial violations by 1 million tenge enhances audit effectiveness by 1,543.2 trillion tenge, while GDP growth by 1 trillion tenge contributes to an increase in effectiveness by 2.242 trillion tenge. A threshold effect of inspection frequency was identified: exceeding 500 audit inspections per year does not lead to a further increase in audit effectiveness. The analysis also showed that audit expenditures positively impact audit efficiency; however, they require rational planning for optimal resource allocation.