Trends in Rice Yiel, Clustering and Convergence of Rice Productivity in the Mekong Delta (1995-2023)

This study analyzes the rice yield trends in the Mekong Delta (MD) across the Winter-Spring, Summer-Autumn, and Autumn-Winter seasons using descriptive statistics, cluster analysis, and economic convergence techniques based on General Statistics Office data spanning 29 years (1995–2023). The results indicate a significant yield increase over time. For the Winter-Spring crop, yields increased from 3.5–4.0 tons/ha (1995) to 6.0–6.5 tons/ha (2023), with an average growth rate of 0.25 tons/ha/year during 2000–2010. Similarly, yields of the Summer-Autumn and Autumn-Winter crops rose from 3.0–4.0 to 5.5–6.5 tons/ha despite adverse impacts from saltwater intrusion and climate change in 2015–2016. Cluster analysis shows distinct yield differences among provinces. Inland provinces like An Giang and Dong Thap achieved the highest yields (6.0–6.3 tons/ha), while coastal provinces like Bac Lieu and Ca Mau had lower yields (4.7–5.0 tons/ha). Rice yield clusters for the Winter-Spring crop split provinces into three groups, with average yields of 5.8, 6.2, and 6.5 tons/ha, respectively. Similar clustering patterns were found for Summer-Autumn and Autumn-Winter crops. Beta and sigma convergence analyses further highlight trends in rice productivity development. Beta convergence reveals that provinces with initially lower yields experienced faster growth, but the estimated half-life is over 620 years, indicating slow convergence. Sigma convergence shows a decline in yield dispersion among provinces, though variation remains considerable.