Is There a Global Convergence or Divergence of Mortality/Longevity around the World?. Global Study from 1990 - 2030

An empirical question that has motivated demographers is whether there is convergence or divergence in mortality/longevity around the world.The epidemiological transition is the starting point to study a universal pattern of mortality around the world.Since then, during the first decade of the 21st century, this topic has attracted a great deal of interest because of the major improvements in reducing mortality.The present work attempts to update previous studies using various mortality indicators and employing clustering methods.We find that mor tality clusters of 194 countries by sex resemble continents configuration, in line with the previous studies of global demographic convergence.These five convergence clubs show a common trend of increasing their longevity indicators and how the differences between sexes and clusters have progressively decreased.We additionally show how convergence/divergence trajectories evolved in the past and project how similarities and differences among countries are expected to evolve in the future.