Reflection on Two Levels: Stalemate at COP28, Stakes at COP29

This article analyzes the Conference of the Parties (COP) in Dubai in 2023 and COP29 in 2024. Some outcomes of COP28 were optimistic, while others require reassessment at COP29. The author identifies four essential issues for COP28 using literary language analysis. Two favorable terms, “financial support” and “food system”, were found, along with two challenging terms, “Loss and Damage” and “Global Stocktake” (GST). The second level of analysis focuses on the situation leading up to COP29. GST is highlighted as a crucial issue, especially after Russia invaded Ukraine, which has raised doubts about the transition away from fossil fuels. The author suggests that during COP29, energy independence pioneers, such as the EU, and proponents of energy dependence, like India and China, may face conflicts, complicating cooperation between industrialized and developing countries. Additionally, the US situation poses challenges for international cooperation, with uncertainty surrounding the 2024 elections and the potential return of Donald Trump. The Republicans, under Trump, are less likely to support energy independence, particularly given the roles of China and India and their continued reliance on fossil fuels, such as coal and oil, after 2022.