Diverging fire trends in Northern Ghana’s savanna landscape: insights from remote sensing and institutional perspectives

<title>Abstract</title> Background Globally, there are growing demands for evidence-based policies to manage wildfires. Currently, fire management in Northern Ghana relies on policies and projects developed without a comprehensive understanding of fire trends and drivers. This study analysed spatio-temporal trends in burned areas (500m MODIS and 30m Landsat products), active fires and fire seasonality using linear regression analysis to investigate shifts in fire regimes between 2000 and 2022. Rainfall and land cover changes during this period and institutional perspectives of the observed trends were also examined. Results When averaged across Northern Ghana, MODIS burned area data revealed a significant decreasing trend, while Landsat burned area, and active fires showed no significant trend. When disaggregated by region, MODIS burned area showed significant decreasing trends for the Savannah Region, Upper East and Upper West Regions. Conversely, Landsat burned area showed no trend in all regions of Northern Ghana. Active fires increased significantly in the Northern Region. Active fire data also revealed a significant shift in fire seasonality in Northern Ghana towards more mid-dry season fires. Institutional perspectives attributed the decline in large fires (identified by MODIS) to the success of interventions designed to reduce uncontrolled burning (locally referred to as bushfires). Conversely, increasing small fires (Landsat burned area and MODIS active fires) were perceived as being associated with smallholder livelihoods dependent on burning, which aligned with the increase in cropland extent observed in land cover data. Conclusion Our results highlight that the scale and resolution of fire datasets are crucial considerations for analysing fire trends. Aggregating data across the whole of Northern Ghana obscured contrasting trends in individual regions. The different trends observed between MODIS and Landsat burned areas suggest a shift from large fires towards smaller ones in Northern Ghana. Institutions expressed a shared objective of suppressing all fires; however, when designing fire management policies, it is important to consider the type of fire, since fire trends, drivers and impacts can vary depending on the size and timing of burning, and the associated land use.