FORECASTING THE DEMAND FOR AGRICULTURAL MACHINERY IN THE AGRO-INDUSTRIAL COMPLEX OF THE REPUBLIC OF BASHKORTOSTAN UNTIL 2030

The article presents the results of a comprehensive study which aimed to determine the regulatory requirements for agricultural machinery in the agro-industrial complex of the Republic of Bashkortostan for the period up to 2030. The authors have developed a calculation methodology that takes into account modern trends in the growing energy intensity of agricultural machinery fleets (an increase in the average tractor power capacity to 150 hp). The method allowed improving the regulatory requirements for agricultural machinery from 11.5 to 9.5 units per 1000 hectares of farmland. The article presents data on the current state of the agricultural machinery fleet: with 14,560 tractors, the coverage per unit is 203 hectares of farmland, which is 13 % higher than the regulations of the Ministry of Agriculture of the Republic of Bashkortostan (180 hectares). The study revealed a shortage of machinery: to achieve optimal indicators by 2030, it is necessary to increase the agricultural machinery fleet to 20,774 units. This indicates the demand for annual purchases of 700 units in 2024 and 800 units in the subsequent period. Particular attention is paid to the need for agricultural machinery: the greatest demand is forecast for soil-cultivating machines – cultivators, harrows and plows. The proprietary software for computing the process demand took into account regional features of the agro-industrial complex. The study results are of practical value for the management bodies of the agro-industrial complex and agricultural producers. The findings can help optimise the process of updating the agricultural machinery fleet and minimise crop losses. The study advances the solution of a strategic task of ensuring technological sovereignty of Russian agriculture.