PRELIMINARY ASSESSMENT OF THERMAL REGIME OF GROWING CROPS OF AGROBIOCENOSES UNDER CONDITIONS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN LUGANSK REGION

A model of the connection between the productivity of agrocenoses in the steppe zone of the Lugansk region and the hydrothermal factors of the environment is presented to obtain preliminary data – a forecast of the average summer temperature based on standard observations of environmental parameters. The theoretical yield and forecasted air temperature values were calculated using the Statistica-10 system. The deviation between the predicted and actual values of the average air temperature was determined to be between 0.0 °C and 3.8 °C from 2020 to 2023, and between 0.1 °C and 2.9 °C from 2020 to 2024. Reliable indicators of the relationship between winter wheat yield and hydrothermal factors were obtained (R² = 0.8656, p = 0.009). Such models forecasting air temperature and precipitation at different regional levels are necessary for agrarians to ensure a stable food supply in Russia.