Examining Spatiotemporal Trends of Temperature and Precipitation and Households Perceptions of Climate Change in the Eastern Free State Region of South Africa

This study examines trends of maximum and minimum temperatures, as well as precipitation, in the Eastern Free State Region (EFSR) of South Africa. Climate Explorer was used to obtain annual maximum and minimum temperatures, and average monthly precipitation data for the period 1960–2019. The Mann Kendall (MK), innovative trend analysis (ITA) Test, and Sen’s estimate were employed to determine the nature of the trends and their significance, while a questionnaire survey was conducted to determine the perceptions of local communities about climate trends in the region. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) was computed for the October to December (OND) and January to March (JFM) sub seasons and for the ONDJFM in R‐Studio 1.1.1717 software using monthly precipitation data for the 1961–2019 period. The results indicate a significant rise in the long‐term annual mean maximum and mean minimum temperatures, which have increased by 0.034 and 0.011°C/annum, respectively. Consistent with the perceptions of surveyed households, the results of the analysis revealed an increase in maximum temperatures, a decrease in precipitation, and consecutive dry years during this period. Most respondents cited an increase in Tmax, a decrease in Tmin, changes in precipitation patterns during the OND and JFM seasons, and increasing drought episodes. The SPI data indicated severe droughts during the JFM subseason in 1973 (−1.21), 1983 (−1.755), 1992 (−1.55), and 2016 (−1.10), and severe droughts in the OND seasons in 1994, 1990, and 2019 (all with SPI −1.645). The study concludes that if appropriate adaptation strategies are not adopted, these changes may contribute to food insecurity and water scarcity in the region, with negative implications for the livelihoods of local communities in the region. The findings underscore the need for context‐specific adaptation measures to address the varied impacts of climate change across different altitudinal zones in the EFSR.