Fruit exploitation and climate suitability for Spondias tuberosa: implications for management and conservation

ABSTRACT Background: Spondias tuberosa Arruda (Anacardiaceae) is a tree species of growing conservation concern due to population decline driven by current land-use practices in the Caatinga, a highly vulnerable ecosystem. The decline of S. tuberosa populations is particularly concerning given its ecological importance and value to local communities. This study aims to quantify the impact of fruit extraction on S. tuberosa populations and to predict current and future climatically suitable habitats for the species, thereby providing critical insights for developing effective management and conservation strategies. Production data (tons) and commercial value (U.S. dollars) were collected from 1994 to 2021. Using the Maxent algorithm, we correlated species occurrence records with key climatic variables under two climate change scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC): an optimistic scenario (RCP2.6) and a pessimistic scenario (RCP8.5). Results: Bahia was the leading producer and trader of S. tuberosa fruits between 1994 and 2021, despite the species’ broader distribution across the Northeast Brazil. The Maxent models demonstrated high predictive accuracy (AUC > 0.94) for both current conditions and future climate change scenarios. Annual precipitation was identified as the most influential climatic variable shaping the distribution of S. tuberosa. Conclusion: Future climate scenarios project a significant expansion of suitable habitats for S. tuberosa in Pernambuco and Bahia. The findings support the development of sustainable resource management strategies, such as establishing commercial plantations and the creation of ex-situ conservation banks alongside environmental protection areas.