Rainfall Prediction in Henan Province based on the Prophet-SARIMA Model

To more accurately predict the rainfall in Henan Province, this paper uses the Prophet-SARIMA model for forecasting. The Prophet-SARIMA model integrates Prophet's ability to effectively capture trends and special events, as well as SARIMA's accurate characterization of data seasonality and periodicity. After empirical results, the RMSE of the Prophet-SARIMA model is 1.4% lower than that of prophet, 3% lower than that of SARIMA, and 23% lower than that of LSTM, which has certain advantages.

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Published
2024-12-13
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1145/3735014.3735914
Primary Topic
Hydrological Forecasting Using AI
Type
article
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article

Rainfall Prediction in Henan Province based on the Prophet-SARIMA Model

Xinna Li, Guo Shu-mei, J. Guo, Ning Zhang
Hydrological Forecasting Using AI
article

Rainfall Prediction in Henan Province based on the Prophet-SARIMA Model

Xinna Li, Guo Shu-mei, J. Guo, Ning Zhang
article en

Abstract

To more accurately predict the rainfall in Henan Province, this paper uses the Prophet-SARIMA model for forecasting. The Prophet-SARIMA model integrates Prophet's ability to effectively capture trends and special events, as well as SARIMA's accurate characterization of data seasonality and periodicity. After empirical results, the RMSE of the Prophet-SARIMA model is 1.4% lower than that of prophet, 3% lower than that of SARIMA, and 23% lower than that of LSTM, which has certain advantages.

PLA Information Engineering University (CN), Henan University of Engineering (CN)
Climate action
Openalex Percentile: Top 75%
Hydrological Forecasting Using AI
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