Predictions of the LSST Solar System Yield: Discovery Rates and Characterizations of Centaurs

Abstract The Vera C. Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) will start by the end of 2025 and operate for 10 yr, offering billions of observations of the southern night sky. One of its main science goals is to create an inventory of the solar system, allowing for a more detailed understanding of small-body populations, including the Centaurs, which will benefit from the survey’s high cadence and depth. In this paper, we establish the first discovery limits for Centaurs throughout the LSST’s decade-long operation using the best available dynamical models. Using the survey simulator Sorcha , we predict a roughly 7-fold increase in Centaurs in the Minor Planet Center (MPC) database, reaching ∼1200–2000 (dependent on definition) by the end of the survey—about 50% of which are expected within the first 2 yr. Approximately 30–50 Centaurs will be observed twice as frequently, as they fall within one of the LSST’s Deep Drilling Fields (DDF) for on average only up to 2 months. Outside of the DDFs, Centaurs will receive ∼200 observations across the ugrizy filter range, facilitating searches for cometary-like activity through point-spread function extension analysis, as well as fitting light curves and phase curves for color determination. Regardless of definition, over 200 Centaurs will achieve high-quality color measurements across at least three filters in the LSST’s six filters. These observations will also provide over 300 well-defined phase curves in the griz bands, improving absolute magnitude measurements to a precision of 0.2 mag.

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Publication Details

Journal
The Astronomical Journal
Published
2025-07-21
DOI
https://doi.org/10.3847/1538-3881/ade1db
Citations
6
Primary Topic
Astro and Planetary Science
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
6.93

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article

Predictions of the LSST Solar System Yield: Discovery Rates and Characterizations of Centaurs

Samuel Cornwall, David Nesvorný, Peter Yoachim, Siegfried Eggl et al.
6 citations
The Astronomical Journal
Astro and Planetary Science
6.93
article

Predictions of the LSST Solar System Yield: Discovery Rates and Characterizations of Centaurs

Samuel Cornwall, David Nesvorný, Peter Yoachim, Siegfried Eggl, Megan E. Schwamb, Joachim Moeyens, Jeremy Kubica, Stephanie R. Merritt, Maxine West, Mario Jurić, J Murtagh, Lynne Jones, G. Fedorets, Matthew J. Holman, Pedro H. Bernardinelli, Kathryn Volk, Colin Orion Chandler, Drew Oldag, Jacob A. Kurlander
article en
6 citations

Abstract

Abstract The Vera C. Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) will start by the end of 2025 and operate for 10 yr, offering billions of observations of the southern night sky. One of its main science goals is to create an inventory of the solar system, allowing for a more detailed understanding of small-body populations, including the Centaurs, which will benefit from the survey’s high cadence and depth. In this paper, we establish the first discovery limits for Centaurs throughout the LSST’s decade-long operation using the best available dynamical models. Using the survey simulator Sorcha , we predict a roughly 7-fold increase in Centaurs in the Minor Planet Center (MPC) database, reaching ∼1200–2000 (dependent on definition) by the end of the survey—about 50% of which are expected within the first 2 yr. Approximately 30–50 Centaurs will be observed twice as frequently, as they fall within one of the LSST’s Deep Drilling Fields (DDF) for on average only up to 2 months. Outside of the DDFs, Centaurs will receive ∼200 observations across the ugrizy filter range, facilitating searches for cometary-like activity through point-spread function extension analysis, as well as fitting light curves and phase curves for color determination. Regardless of definition, over 200 Centaurs will achieve high-quality color measurements across at least three filters in the LSST’s six filters. These observations will also provide over 300 well-defined phase curves in the griz bands, improving absolute magnitude measurements to a precision of 0.2 mag.

The Astronomical JournalVol. 170(2)
Queen's University Belfast (GB), Southwest Research Institute (US), Carter Center (US), Space Science Institute (US), Planetary Science Institute (US), University of Helsinki (FI), University of Turku (FI), University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign (US), University of Washington (US), Helsinki Institute of Physics (FI), Large Synoptic Survey Telescope Corporation (US), Center for Astrophysics Harvard & Smithsonian (US), Stem Cell Institute (PA), University of Washington Applied Physics Laboratory (US), Carnegie Mellon University (US)
National Science Foundation, U.S. Department of Energy, National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation, Brinson Foundation, Washington Research Foundation, University of Washington, Heising-Simons Foundation, Planetary Society, Department for the Economy, Nuclear Safety and Security Commission, Institute for Data Intensive Research in Astrophysics and Cosmology, University of Washington, Science and Technology Facilities Council
Openalex Percentile: Top 3%
Astro and Planetary Science
6.93
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