Evaluation Model of Water Production in Tight Gas Reservoirs Considering Bound Water Saturation

Tight gas is an unconventional resource abundantly found in low-porosity, low-permeability sandstone reservoirs. Production can be significantly reduced due to water production during the development process. Therefore, it is necessary to predict water production during the logging phase to formulate development strategies for tight gas wells. This study analyzes the water production mechanism in tight sandstone reservoirs and identifies that the core of water production evaluation in the Shihezi Formation of the Linxing block is to clarify the pore permeability structure of tight sandstone and the type of intra-layer water. The primary challenge lies in the accurate characterization of bound water saturation. By integrating logging data with core experiments, a bound water saturation evaluation model based on grain size diameter and pore structure index was established, achieving a calculation accuracy of 92% for the multi-parameter-fitted bound water saturation. Then, based on the high-precision bound water saturation, a gas–water ratio prediction model for the first month of production, considering water saturation, grain size diameter, and fluid type, was established, improving the prediction accuracy to 87.7%. The bound water saturation evaluation and water production evaluation models in this study can achieve effective water production prediction in the early stage of production, providing theoretical support for the scientific development of tight gas in the Linxing block.