From Meals to Marks: Modeling the Impact of Family Involvement on Reading Performance with Counterfactual Explainable AI

This study investigates the impact of family engagement on student reading achievement in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) using counterfactual explainable artificial intelligence (CXAI) analysis. Drawing data from 24,600 students in the UAE PISA dataset, the analysis employed Gradient Boosting, SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations), and counterfactual simulations to model and interpret the influence of ten parental involvement variables. The results identified time spent talking with parents, frequency of family meals, and encouragement to achieve good marks as the strongest predictors of reading performance. Counterfactual analysis revealed that increasing the time spent talking with parents and frequency of family meals from their minimum (1) to maximum (5) levels, while holding other variables constant at their medians, could increase the predicted reading score from the baseline of 358.93 to as high as 448.68, marking an improvement of nearly 90 points. These findings emphasize the educational value of culturally compatible parental behaviors. The study also contributes to methodological advancement by integrating interpretable machine learning with prescriptive insights, demonstrating the potential of XAI for educational policy and intervention design. Implications for educators, policymakers, and families highlight the importance of promoting high-impact family practices to support literacy development. The approach offers a replicable model for leveraging AI to understand and enhance student learning outcomes across diverse contexts.