Ecological indicators predict functional diversity dynamics following glacier retreat

Abstract The retreat of glaciers due to climate change is reshaping mountain landscapes and biodiversity. While previous research has documented vegetation succession after glacier retreat, our understanding of functional diversity dynamics is still limited. In this case study, we address the effects of glacier retreat on plant functional diversity by integrating plant traits with ecological indicator values across a 140-year chronosequence in a subalpine glacier landscape. We reveal that functional richness and functional dispersion decrease with glacier retreat, while functional evenness and functional divergence increase, suggesting a shift toward more specialized and competitive communities. Our findings highlight the critical role of ecological factors related to soil moisture, soil nutrients and light availability in shaping plant community dynamics. As years since deglaciation was a key factor in regression and machine learning models, encapsulating time-lagged, spatial and historical processes, we highlight the need of including time into phenomenological or mechanistic models predicting biodiversity change following glacier retreat. The integrative approach of this case study provides novel insights into the potential response of alpine plant communities to climate change, offering a deeper understanding of how to predict and anticipate the effects of glacier extinction on biodiversity in rapidly changing environments.