Spatial Downscaling of GRACE Groundwater Storage Based on DTW Distance Clustering and an Analysis of Its Driving Factors

High-resolution groundwater storage is essential for effective regional water resource management. While Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite data offer global coverage, the coarse spatial resolution (0.25–0.5°) limits the data’s applicability at regional scales. Traditional downscaling methods often fail to effectively capture spatial heterogeneity within regions, leading to reduced model performance. To overcome this limitation, a zoned downscaling strategy based on time series clustering is proposed. A K-means clustering algorithm with dynamic time warping (DTW) distance, combined with a random forest (RF) model, was employed to partition the Hexi Corridor region into relatively homogeneous subregions for downscaling. Results demonstrated that this clustering strategy significantly enhanced downscaling model performance. Correlation coefficients rose from 0.10 without clustering to above 0.84 with K-means clustering and the RF model, while correlation with the groundwater monitoring well data improved from a mean of 0.47 to 0.54 in the first subregion (a) and from 0.40 to 0.45 in the second subregion (b). The driving factor analysis revealed notable differences in dominant factors between subregions. In the first subregion (a), potential evapotranspiration (PET) was found to be the primary driving factor, accounting for 33.70% of the variation. In the second subregion (b), the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) was the dominant factor, contributing 29.73% to the observed changes. These findings highlight the effectiveness of spatial clustering downscaling methods based on DTW distance, which can mitigate the effects of spatial heterogeneity and provide high-precision groundwater monitoring data at a 1 km spatial resolution, ultimately improving water resource management in arid regions.