Spatial Differentiation in the Contribution of Innovation Influencing Factors: An Empirical Study in Nanjing from the Perspective of Nonlinear Relationships

The agglomeration characteristics of innovation spaces reflect the intrinsic mechanisms of regional resource integration and collaborative innovation. Investigating the contributions of influencing factors to innovation space agglomeration and their spatial differentiation has significant implications for improving urban innovation quality. Taking the Nanjing central urban area as a case study, this research applied gradient boosting regression trees (GBRT) and multiscale geographically weighted regression (MGWR) models to explore the contributions of influencing factors to innovation space agglomeration and its spatial differentiation. Findings demonstrated that (1) Innovation platforms and patents emerged as the most significant driving factors, collectively accounting for 54.8% of the relative contributions; (2) The contributions of influencing factors to innovation space agglomeration exhibited marked nonlinear characteristics, specifically categorized into five distinct patterns: Sustained Growth Pattern, Growth-Stabilization Pattern, Growth-Decline Pattern, Global Stabilization Pattern, and Global Decline Pattern. The inflection thresholds of marginal effects across factors ranged from approximately 12% to 55% (e.g., 40% for metro stations, 13% for integrated commercial hubs); (3) Each influence factor’s contribution mechanism showed pronounced spatial heterogeneity across different regions. Based on these discoveries, governments should optimize innovation resource allocation according to regional characteristics and enhance spatial quality to promote efficient resource integration and transformation. This research provides a novel perspective for understanding innovation space agglomeration mechanisms and offers actionable references for urban policymakers to implement context-specific innovation economic development strategies.