A Hybrid Multi-Step Forecasting Approach for Methane Steam Reforming Process Using a Trans-GRU Network

During the steam reforming of methane (SRM) process, elevated CH4 levels after the reaction often signify inadequate heat supply or incomplete reactions within the reformer, jeopardizing process stability. In this paper, a novel multi-step forecasting method using a Trans-GRU network was proposed for predicting the methane content outlet of the SRM reformer. First, a novel feature selection based on the maximal information coefficient (MIC) was applied to identify critical input variables and determine their optimal input order. Additionally, the Trans-GRU network enables the simultaneous capture of multivariate correlations and the learning of global sequence representations. The experimental results based on time-series data from a real SRM process demonstrate that the proposed approach significantly improves the accuracy of multi-step methane content prediction. Compared to benchmark models, including the TCN, Transformer, GRU, and CNN-LSTM, the Trans-GRU consistently achieves the lowest root mean squared error (RMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE) values across all prediction steps (1–6). Specifically, at the one-step horizon, it yields an RMSE of 0.0120 and an MAE of 0.0094. This high performance remains robust across the 2–6-step predictions. The improved predictive capability supports the stable operation and predictive optimization strategies of the steam reforming process in hydrogen production.