Coordinated Development and Spatiotemporal Evolution Trends of China’s Agricultural Trade and Production from the Perspective of Food Security

Ensuring food security necessitates a high level of coordinated development between agricultural trade and production. Based on China's provincial panel data from 2010 to 2023, this study constructs an evaluation index system for agricultural trade and production, employing an entropy-weighted TOPSIS model to measure their development levels. On this basis, a coupling coordination degree model and Moran's I indices are used to analyze the coordinated development level's temporal changes and spatial effects. The research finds that the development levels of China's agricultural trade and production show an upward trend but currently still exhibit the pattern of higher levels in Eastern China and lower levels in Western China. The coupling coordination level between them demonstrates an increasing trend, yet the overall level remains relatively low, with an average value of only 0.445, consistently staying in a marginal disorder "running-in stage" and spatially presenting a distinct "east-high-west-low" stepped distribution pattern. Furthermore, from a spatial perspective, the Global Moran's index decreased from 0.293 to 0.280. The coupling coordination degree of agricultural trade and production in China generally exhibits a positive spatial autocorrelation, but this effect has been weakening over time. Most provinces show spatial clustering characteristics of high-high and low-low agglomeration in local space, and this feature is relatively stable. Building on these insights, this study proposes a refinement of the coordination mechanisms between agricultural trade and production, alongside the implementation of differentiated regional coordinated development strategies, to promote the coupled and coordinated advancement of agricultural trade and production.