Economic Efficiency of Renewable Energy Investments in Photovoltaic Projects: A Regression Analysis

Energy Performance Contracts (EPC) are performance-based financing mechanisms designed to improve energy efficiency and support renewable energy adoption in the public sector. This study examines the economic efficiency of a 1710.72 kWp solar power plant (SPP), implemented under an EPC at Alanya Alaaddin Keykubat University, using a regression-based analysis. The model evaluates the effects of solar radiation, investment cost, and electricity sales price on unit production cost, and its predictions were compared with actual production data. Results show the system exceeded the EPC contract target by 16.2%, producing 2,423,472.28 kWh in its first year and preventing 1168.64 tons of CO2 emissions. The developed multiple linear regression model achieved a predictive error margin of 14.7%, confirming its validity. This study highlights the technical, economic, and environmental benefits of EPC applications in Türkiye’s public institutions and offers a practical decision-support framework for policymakers. The novelty lies in integrating a regression model with operational data and providing a comparative assessment of planned, predicted, and actual outcomes.