Integrating Inferential Statistics and Systems Dynamics: A Study of Short-Term Happiness Evolution in Response to a Dose of Alcohol and Caffeine

This paper compares two methods, inferential statistics and Systems Dynamics, to study the evolution of individual happiness after a single dose of drug consumption. In an application case, the effect of alcohol and caffeine on happiness is analyzed through a single-case experimental design, with replication, involving two participants. Both inferential statistical analysis and Systems Dynamics methods have been used to analyze the results. Two scales were used to measure happiness—the Euphoria Scale (ES) and the Smiling Face Scale (SFS)—in trait and state format. A single-case experimental ABC design was used. Phase A had no treatment, and Phases B and C saw both subjects receiving 26.51 mL of alcohol and 330 mg of caffeine, respectively. The participants filled in a form with both scales in a state format every 10 min over a 3 h period, operating in each one of the three phases A, B and C. The main conclusion of the analysis performed is that both methods provide similar results about the evolution of individual happiness after single dose consumption. Therefore, the article shows that inferential statistics and the stimulus response model derived from the Systems Dynamics approach can be used in a complementary and enriching way to obtain prediction results.