Historical Evolution and Future Trends of Riverbed Dynamics Under Anthropogenic Impact and Climatic Change: A Case Study of the Ialomița River (Romania)

Riverbed dynamics are natural processes that are strongly driven by human and climatic factors. In the last two centuries, the anthropogenic influence and impact of climate change on European rivers has resulted in significant degradation of riverbeds. This research paper aims to determine the historical evolution (1856–2021) and future trends of the Ialomița riverbed (Romania) under the influence of anthropogenic impact and climate change. The case study is a reach of 66 km between the confluences with the Ialomicioara and Pâscov rivers. The localisation in a contact zone between the Curvature Subcarpathians and the Târgoviște Plain, the active recent tectonic uplift of the area, and the intense anthropogenic intervention gives to this river reach favourable conditions for pronounced riverbed dynamics over time. To achieve the aim of the study, we developed a complex methodology which involves the use of Geographical Information System (GIS) techniques, hierarchical cluster analysis (HCA), the Mann–Kendall test (MK), and R programming. The results indicate that the evolution of the Ialomița River aligns with the general trends observed across Europe and within Romania, characterised by a reduction in riverbed geomorphological complexity and a general transition from a braided, multi-thread into a sinuous, single-thread fluvial style. The main processes consist of channel narrowing and incision alternating with intense meandering. However, specific temporal and spatial evolution patterns were identified, mainly influenced by the increasingly anthropogenic local influences and confirmed climate changes in the study area since the second half of the 20th century. Future evolutionary trends suggest that, in the absence of river restoration interventions, the Ialomița riverbed is expected to continue degrading on a short-term horizon, following both climatic and anthropogenic signals. The findings of this study may contribute to a better understanding of recent river behaviours and serve as a valuable tool for the management of the Ialomița River.