Soil Erosion Dynamics and Driving Force Identification in the Yiluo River Basin Under Multiple Future Scenarios

Our study focused on identifying the evolution of soil erosion and its key drivers under multiple future scenarios in the Yiluo River Basin. Integrating the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE), future land use and vegetation cover simulation methods, and the Geodetector model, we analyzed historical soil erosion trends (2000–2020), projected future soil erosion risks under multiple Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), and quantified the interactive effects of key driving factors. The results showed that soil erosion within the basin exhibited moderate intensity. Over the past 20 years, soil erosion decreased by 28.78%, with 76.29% of the area experiencing reduced erosion intensity. Future projections indicated an overall declining trend in soil erosion, showing reductions of 4.93–35.95% compared to baseline levels. However, heterogeneous patterns emerged across various scenarios, with the highest risk observed under SSP585. Land use type was identified as the core driving factor behind soil erosion (explanatory capacity q-value > 5%). Under diverse future climate scenarios, interactions between land use type and precipitation and temperature exhibited high sensitivity, highlighting the critical regulatory role of climate change in regulating erosion processes. This research provides a scientific foundation for the precise prevention and adaptive management of soil erosion in the Loess Plateau region.