Decarbonization or Transformation First?Assessing the Synergistic Effects ofCarbon Reduction Dual Pilot Policieson Ecological Resilience

The dual pilot initiatives for "low-carbon cities" and "new energy demonstration cities" are pivotal for promoting sustainable development, offering critical insights for leveraging policy combinations to foster global ecological sustainability.Using panel data from 285 Chinese cities (2008)(2009)(2010)(2011)(2012)(2013)(2014)(2015)(2016)(2017)(2018)(2019)(2020)(2021)(2022), this paper employs an asymptotic difference-in-differences model to assess the impact of carbon reduction dual pilot policies on urban ecological resilience, examining their synergistic pathways and mechanisms.Findings indicate that the dual policy significantly boosts ecological resilience more effectively than single policies, with sequential adoption showing stronger and swifter improvements.The dual pilot cities that first become "new energy demonstration cities" pilots and then become "low-carbon cities" pilots have stronger and faster ecological resilience improvement effects.The effects of the dual pilot policy are mediated through industrial upgrading and R&D compensation, with greater impacts in central and western regions, developed cities, and non-resource-based cities.The effect of the dual pilot policy has dynamic heterogeneity, and the policy effect significantly improves when the local fiscal revenue level crosses the threshold.Additionally, the dual pilot policy exhibits positive spatial spillovers, enhancing the ecological resilience of neighboring cities.