MODELLING & FORECASTING THE STABILITY OF INDIAN OVERSEAS BANK USING ARIMA, VAR & REGRESSION: A COMPARATIVE ARIMA STUDY WITH SELECTED INDIAN BANKS

This study explores the financial stability of Indian Overseas Bank (IOB) by employing advanced econometric techniques like ARIMA, VAR & regression, to model & forecast GrossNPA. This Research investigate the dynamic relationships between NPAs and key macroeconomic variables. The ARIMA model forecast a stable trend in IOB’s NPAs through 2030, while the VAR highlights a two-way link between GDP and NPAs. Through Regression we identified exchange rate is the most significant predictor of asset quality. A comparative ARIMA analysis with other major Indian banks further supports findings. The study emphasizes the value of predictive models for effective risk management and policy formulation in banking sector. Keywords: 1. Indian Overseas Bank 2. Punjab National Bank 3. Bank of India 4. Bank of Baroda 5. State Bank of India 6.GDP 7. Exchange rate 8. Interest rate 9. Inflation rate 10. GrossNPA 11. ARIMA 12. VAR 13. Regression.