The impact of vehicle lane-changing on the speed and delay of vehicles in the target lane based on the GMM-HMM

Lane-changing maneuvers are pervasive in urban traffic scenarios, significantly impacting the operational dynamics of vehicles in the target lane, particularly under conditions of high traffic density (0.80 ≤ V/C ≤ 0.90). This study employs a Gaussian Mixture Model Hidden Markov Model (GMM-HMM) to quantitatively analyze the influence of lead vehicle lane-changes on the speed and delay of subsequent vehicles in the target lane. Our methodology involves a detailed examination of the transitive effects of these maneuvers across various states, revealing that lane-changes by the lead vehicle result in deceleration of following vehicles in the target lane with a frequency of 81.2% for the first vehicle, 66.71% for the second, 52.24% for the third, 27.36% for the fourth, and 10.95% for the fifth. The study underscores that the lane-changing actions of the lead vehicle have a substantial impact on the deceleration times of the first three following vehicles, with a diminishing effect on the fourth and fifth vehicles. These findings provide critical insights for urban traffic management, suggesting that under high-density traffic conditions, lane changes significantly disrupt the flow of traffic, contributing to congestion. Our results offer a basis for developing strategies aimed at mitigating traffic congestion and enhancing traffic flow efficiency.