Stock Price Prediction and Risk Estimation Using Hybrid CNN-LSTM and VaR-ECF

Stock price prediction is a major challenge in the financial domain due to high volatility and complex movement patterns. Traditional methods such as fundamental and technical analysis often fail to capture the non-linear characteristics and fast-changing market dynamics, highlighting the need for more adaptive approaches. This study proposes a hybrid deep learning model, CNN-LSTM, which combines CNN's local feature extraction capabilities with LSTM’s ability to model long-term temporal dependencies. To incorporate risk management, the model is also integrated with the Value at Risk (VaR) approach using the Cornish-Fisher Expansion (ECF) to estimate potential losses under extreme market conditions. The study utilizes daily historical stock price data of PT Unilever Indonesia Tbk retrieved from Yahoo Finance. Model performance is evaluated using Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), where the model achieves an MAE of 78.13 and a MAPE of 2.72%, indicating relatively low absolute and relative prediction errors. These results confirm that the CNN-LSTM approach effectively models stock price movements in dynamic market environments, and the integration with VaR-ECF provides a more comprehensive risk estimate. Thus, this approach not only enhances predictive accuracy but also offers valuable decision-support tools for investors in planning investment strategies.