Study on the Calibration of Electricity-carbon Models for the Ceramic Industry Based on Multi-source Data

The electricity-carbon model is a tool used to analyze the carbon emission situation of the power system and its interrelationships with energy structure, economy, technology, and other factors. It can accurately assess the carbon emission situation of different power generation technologies at various stages and helps the power industry to formulate a scientific and reasonable energy transition strategy, which is of great significance. This study takes 38 ceramic enterprises as research objects, establishes five types of electricity-carbon models, and explores the fitting and prediction accuracy of each model. The results show that: In the calibration based on the univariate primary polynomial linear regression electricity-carbon model of 30 ceramic enterprises, 16 of them have a deviation of less than 5% between predicted and verified emissions; 8 of them have a deviation of 5%-10%, and 6 of them have a deviation of more than 10%. For the univariate quadratic polynomial linear regression electricity-carbon model, out of 32 ceramic enterprises, 9 have a deviation of less than 5% between predicted and verified emissions; 9 have a deviation of 5%-10%, and 14 have a deviation of more than 10%. The average deviation value is 12.88%. The calibration results based on the carbon emissions source decomposition of the electricity-carbon model and the linear regression of a one-dimensional polynomial electricity-carbon model are largely identical. In the calibration of the linear electricity-carbon model based on multi-source data, for 35 ceramic enterprises, 19 have a deviation within 5% between predicted and verified emissions; 8 have a deviation between 5% and 10%, and 8 have a deviation of more than 10%. The average deviation value is 8.65%. The accuracy of the carbon emissions from various electricity-carbon models was verified, providing a reference for enterprises when choosing electricity-carbon models for accounting.