Qualitative scenarios analysis for upgrading timber value chains: A case study in Thua Thien Hue province, central Vietnam

The forest transition in Vietnam is moving to the next step: to substantially improve the quality of plantation forests and enhance their economic achievement, social benefits and environmental services. To achieve these goals, the Vietnamese government has issued a number of policies, for example, to promote the domestic furniture processing industry and develop timber value chains (VCs). However, the further development of the timber industry remains uncertain under the impacts of influence factors. This study presents the findings from qualitative scenario analysis conducted to identify and evaluate different pathways of Acacia timber VCs in Thua Thien Hue province, where the species has been cultivated for more than 20 years. Contextual condition analysis and 15 key informant interviews facilitated the identification of three development scenarios based on the level of forest transition interventions and the reactions of key VC actors. The main criteria for VC assessment were justified according to the three pillars of sustainable development encompassing economic potential, social benefits and environmental improvement. Findings indicate a low level of effective implementation prospects of a fast transition model under the current situation. A slow transition scenario with a co-management model, instead, serves as a suitable development pathway.