Production of sustainable aviation fuel: Influence of feedstock and plant capacity on fuel price

This study investigates the economic and technical viability of producing Sustainable Aviation Fuels (SAF) using green hydrogen (H 2 ) and carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) first, before assessing the process of methanol-to-jet in the second part. Using 66 kt/year of H 2 and 480 kt/year of CO 2 as feedstock, a production of 55 kt/year of kerosene is achieved. Based on a Discounted Cash Flow Rate Model, the economic analysis reveals a Levelized Cost of Operations (LCO) of $8.17 ± 5.25/kg, significantly higher than the European conventional jet fuel price ($0.46–1.77/kg). Consistent with other research, a sensitivity analysis confirms the substantial impact of H 2 price on SAF costs, necessitating exploring new feedstocks. In this regard, bio-methanol emerges as promising with a mean LCO of $0.72/kg for economies of scales between 200 kt/year and 399 kt/year. Despite current limitations in bio-methanol production, the findings underscore the need for cost-effective solutions to provide sufficient supply of feedstock for SAF. • The found cost of $8.17 ± 5.25/kg for kerosene from green H 2 is not competitive • The cost of green H 2 has been highly underestimated in the past years • Bio-methanol is the most profitable feedstock for kerosene with a cost of $0.72/kg • The highest profitability is achieved with over 200 kt/year of methanol supply • Expanding bio-methanol supply is essential for sustainable and profitable aviation