Altitudinal Trends on Seasonal and Geographic Contrail Persistent Regions Over CONUS

Addressing contrail formation and avoidance will play a large part in the aviation sector’s fight against climate change. Most contrail research has focused on looking at contrail trends below 40,000 ft, the altitude range typically flown by commercial aircraft. Many next generation aircraft are designed to fly higher, such as the Sustainable Flight Demonstrator (SFD)’s Transonic Truss-Braced Wing (TTBW)’s cruise altitude 43,000 ft. This is significantly higher than that of its replacement, the Boeing 737-Max (B737). The Schmidt-Appleman criterion is used with weather data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration to take a closer look at contrails’ seasonal and geographical trends over the Continental United States (CONUS). It is found that for the lower altitude range between 30,000 and 35,000 ft, as altitude increases there are more contrail persistent regions (CPR). However, the trend reverses after 40,000 ft to 50,000 ft, and the area of CPR decreases as altitude increases. Contrail seasonal and geographical dependence also depends on altitude, with lower altitudes having more CPR in the winter and spring in the north and northwest. Higher altitudes have more CPR during the summer and fall in the south. However, B737 common flight paths dominate in the south, making the southern section of the CONUS have more flights through CPR.