WITHDRAWN: A Wake-Turbulence Encounter Safety-Risk Assessment Tool For Air Traffic Capacity Control

This research aimed at risk assessing wake turbulence encounters post implementation of the ICAO wake turbulence recategorization at Dubai International Airport, focusing on the Boeing B737. The aim of the research was to first consider: wake turbulence recategorization and the associated risks with reducing wake separations; currently employed wake turbulence severity scales; widely used risk matrices that are suitable to assess wake turbulence encounters; mitigation measures to reduce wake turbulence risks and expedite wake turbulence decay. The subsequent primary research consisted of interviews and pilot survey. The interviews included the significance of encounters, wake vortex influencing parameters, reasonable worst-case weather conditions for wake turbulence decay, and previous wake turbulence studies conducted in Dubai. Upon completion of the interviews, the authorss were able to identify the influencing parameters that define how severe a wake turbulence encounter is. These parameters were used to formulate the survey questions with a large number of (380 pilots taking part in the survey. Using the information obtained from the secondary and primary research, the authorss constructed a severity table suitable for risk assessing wake turbulence encounters. By combining the data provided by the subject matter experts with ICAO’s and FAA’s risk matrices, a wake turbulence risk matrix was developed. Subsequently, 290 responses from the survey data were then analysed, and risk assessed individually using the developed risk matrix to determine whether wake turbulence encounters in Dubai’s airspace required additional mitigation. The research revealed that the majority of wake turbulence encounters were within the safety space with only some highlighted encounters that required special attention. It was found that 17.58% of these analysed encounters were categorized as “Moderate” with bank angles exceeding 30 degrees, and only 5 encounters were categorized as Moderate and occurring at low altitude. The authorss highlight the risks associated with these encounters and proposed some mitigation measures such as installing wake turbulence plate lines, airspace restructuring, amendment to ATC procedures, recommend further wake turbulence recategorization.