The Impact of Reduced Space Launch Costs

The development of commercial rockets has substantially reduced the cost of space launch. SpaceX Falcon rockets have reduced the space shuttle cost to LEO by a factor of 20, and the SpaceX Starship is projected to reduce the launch cost much further. The previous high launch cost has been the greatest limiting factor in exploring and developing space. The high cost of launch has directly led to high costs for spacecraft and space operations. Lower launch cost will enable much more extensive use of space for all purposes, including recreational, commercial, and defense. Lower launch cost makes human Mars missions or space habitats much easier. Mass can be provided for life support materials, to create rotational artificial gravity, and to provide radiation shielding. It is now inexpensive to send manufacturing materials into space, but the limited availability of astronaut time will probably prevent extensive manufacturing in space. The immediate effect of lower launch cost has been to increase the number of launches of familiar systems, but in the long term it will drastically change space system design trade-offs. High launch cost made it necessary to invest heavily to improve space systems reliability, but now lower launch cost allows less reliable systems to be cost-effective, even optimal when improving reliability is difficult and expensive. This is one surprising effect of low launch costs, and it seems necessary to reconsider all our goals and approaches for space. We appear to be at the threshold of a significant expansion in space systems. Low launch costs will enable both long-anticipated and unexpected uses of space.