Challenge Problem Overview for the Certification by Analysis Uncertainty Quantification Discussion Group

Aircraft Certification by Analysis is a broad term that describes the process by which engineering analysis tools are used to supplement flight testing to demonstrate compliance with regulatory requirements. For each requirement that is to be met through this process, the analysis tools must be sufficiently accurate to ensure that an equivalent level of safety is obtained as if the aircraft to be certified had been flight tested for the requirement. In recent decades, the ability of analysis tools to accurately predict aircraft performance has improved dramatically, leading to increasing interest and limited early adoption of Certification by Analysis across the aerospace industry. However, rigorously demonstrating the credibility of analysis tools remains a challenge for many types of certification requirements, yet it is necessary for widespread adoption of Certification by Analysis approaches in the future. The field of uncertainty quantification is well suited to address this problem but will require substantial advances in order to achieve the ambitious industry goals for Certification by Analysis. The objective of this paper is to introduce a Challenge Problem focusing on a relevant Certification by Analysis task including uncertainty quantification. In particular, an antenna radome is added to the upper fuselage surface of the NASA Common Research Model, and participants in the Challenge Problem are requested to develop verification, validation, and uncertainty quantification frameworks to assess how the design complies to certification regulations. Specific details regarding the geometry, computational fluid dynamics, structural analysis, and sources of uncertainty are discussed throughout this paper. Challenge Problem deliverables and logistics are also discussed.