Data-Driven Investigation of Re-Fleeting Scenarios for the 50-Seat Regional Aircraft Segment

Regional air mobility in the United States has been facing significant challenges owing to the travel time inefficiencies induced by connecting air services at large hubs and owing to the widespread use of regional jets on very short sectors where their energy-efficiency and economics are not optimal. However, following the signature of the Paris agreement, the 41st ICAO assembly adopted a Long-Term Aspirational Goal of net-zero carbon emissions by 2050 thus encouraging each airlines to seek a minimization of their carbon emissions footprint. This may be achieved through several means, one of which may be the re-introduction of turboprops in the United States regional airlines fleets to drastically improve energy efficiency and reduce carbon emissions. This research leverages the use of traveler movement data derived from mobile GPS to analyze millions of trips across the US. This data is used to calibrate a mode choice model based on the generalized cost of travel that helps us understand the behavior of travelers when faced with several transportation options. This mode choice model is then leveraged to identify the potential impact on travel demand in the future when small regional jets will reach the end of their useful life and will be retired. Two scenarios are investigated with a first scenario looking at replacing retiring 50-seat regional jets with 50-seat turboprops and the second one looking at up-gauging the replacement of 50-seat regional jets with either larger 70-seat regional jet reconfigured with lower cabin densities and seating just 50 passengers or 75-seat regional jets. Various societal, operational, and environmental metrics are derived from these analyses to help contrast the outcome of these two strategies.