Evaluating Benefits of Enhanced Air Traffic Management in the Pacific Oceanic Region Through Computer Simulation

Advancements in Air Traffic Management (ATM) procedures over the Pacific oceanic region have been driven by technologies such as Automatic Dependent Surveillance-Broadcast (ADS-B), Controller-Pilot Data Link Communications (CPDLC), and the Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS). According to the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), these technologies may reduce separation standards between aircraft by enhancing surveillance, communication, and navigation capabilities in ocean areas where traditional radar coverage is poor. Computer simulation is an important tool for evaluating and quantifying the operational benefits of these technologies. This study uses the Global Oceanic (GO) model, a fast-time simulation tool, to simulate Pacific oceanic aircraft traffic under different scenarios associated with specified separation standards. Significant enhancements have been made to the GO model in this study, including improvements in the conflict detection and resolution module, which aligns with Advanced Technologies and Oceanic Procedures (ATOP). Besides, the aircraft Takeoff Weight (TOW) estimation module in the GO model has been upgraded to account for oceanic wind speed and direction of travel. The TOWestimation module includes mass-dependent aircraft fuel flow during the cruise phase and realistic reserve fuel, providing more accurate TOW calculations. Moreover, a traffic projection module has been integrated into the GO model to support long-term traffic scenario analysis. Based on three consecutive days of actual Pacific traffic in July 2019 and projected traffic for July 2043, the simulations estimate the potential benefits in aircraft fuel consumption, airspace capacity, and Air Traffic Controllers (ATCs) workload. The results show that reduced separation minima in the most advanced scenario in 2043 could save 40.4 million kilograms of fuel or 30.9 million dollars annually, assuming 320 operational days per year with an average of 2,576 flights per day over the Pacific Ocean.