Understanding Engine Related Safety Occurrences and the Implications for Prognostics and Health Management Systems

This research examines trends and features in engine-related safety occurrences reported to the Australian Transport Safety Bureau (ATSB) from 1970 to 2019 to inform the development and direction of research into Prognostics and Health Management (PHM) systems for aircraft engines. A logistic regression model is used to determine whether the likelihood of an occurrence being classified as serious (a combined category of accidents and serious incidents) has changed over the 50-year period, considering factors such as engine type, activity group, and registration type. The results indicate a statistically significant, though negligibly small, positive change in the likelihood of a serious engine-related occurrence over time. This change persists even after accounting for the influence of engine type, activity group, and registration type. Compared to piston engines, turboprop, turbofan, and turboshaft engines show lower odds of serious occurrences, while recreational registered aircraft show higher odds compared to Australian VH-registered aircraft. Commercial air transport is associated with lower odds of a serious occurrence, while the military activity group does not show a significant association. The findings underscore the need for continued research and development of advanced PHM systems to enhance aircraft engine safety and reliability.