Land Use Classification and Predictive Modeling of Urban Growth Impacts on the Environment in Minna Metropolis, Niger State, Nigeria

This study investigates the land use and land cover (LULC) changes in Minna Metropolis, Niger State, Nigeria, from 2015 to 2024, emphasizing the impacts of urban growth on the environment. Employing remote sensing and Geographic Information System (GIS) techniques, the research utilizes high-resolution satellite imagery to conduct a comprehensive classification of land use across four critical years: 2015, 2018, 2021, and 2024. The analysis reveals a significant increase in built-up areas, which expanded from 28.68 km² (15.51%) in 2015 to 69.98 km² (37.85%) in 2024, indicating rapid urbanization and infrastructural development driven by population growth and economic activities. In contrast, agricultural land, while remaining the predominant land cover, exhibited a slight decline from 140.20 km² (75.81%) in 2018 to 129.01 km² (69.75%) in 2024, reflecting the pressures of urban encroachment. Furthermore, vegetation cover experienced a notable decrease, dropping from 15.39 km² (8.32%) in 2021 to 5.17 km² (2.80%) in 2024, underscoring the environmental challenges associated with urban expansion, such as habitat loss and reduced biodiversity. The study also employs predictive modeling to forecast land use changes for 2034, projecting a further increase in built-up areas to 101.83 km² (55.08%), alongside a corresponding decline in agricultural and vegetative land. This forecast highlights the potential for continued urban sprawl and its implications for local ecosystems. The findings underscore the urgent need for sustainable urban planning strategies that incorporate remote sensing and GIS methodologies to monitor and manage urban growth effectively. By doing so, stakeholders can mitigate the adverse effects of urbanization on the environment and ensure the preservation of vital ecosystems in Minna Metropolis, thereby promoting a balanced approach to development and environmental conservation.