Suitability prediction of potential arable land in southeast coastal area of China

Cultivated land in coastal areas is highly vulnerable to climate and has continued to degrade in recent years. To ensure food security in the southeast coastal region, it is necessary to focus on the cultivated land degradation caused by climate change. This study predicted the potential suitable areas for cultivated land in the southeast coastal region using 32 environmental variables by the R-optimized MaxEnt model. Then, the spatial distribution pattern and centroid migration trend of the potential habitat area under two greenhouse gas emission scenarios (SSP126 and SSP585) in the future 2021-2040 (2040s) and 2041-2060 (2060s) were modeled. The results are as follows: (1) The main environmental variables affecting the distribution of cultivated land are elevation and daily range of average temperature. (2) Under the current climate scenario, the suitable areas for cultivated land are mainly distributed along the coastal edges of Guangxi, Guangdong, Hainan, and Fujian, and the eastern and western edges of Taiwan, accounting for 35.4% of the southeast coastal area's total (3) Under future climate change scenarios of SSP126 and SSP585, the potential suitable area for cultivated land generally showed a shrinking trend, decreasing by 3.1 - 6% and - 0.1% - 3.4% respectively. The total suitable area under the SSP126 shrinks more than under the SSP585, suggesting more severe land degradation under the low emission scenario. (4) In future scenarios, the center of suitable cultivated land migrates towards lower latitudes, corresponding with the shift of daily temperature range. The areas suitable for cultivated land predicted in this study can lay a theoretical foundation for future land resource investigation and assessment as well as the preparatory work for cultivated land transfer. Accordingly, it is possible to make advance plans and arrangements in aspects such as infrastructure construction and the promotion of agricultural technologies. While actively promoting the development of low-carbon agriculture, cultivated land resources should be effectively protected, providing scientific guidance for climate change adaptation.