Impact of urban morphology on land surface temperature: A case study of the central Tokyo, Japan

• Building height and volume negatively correlate with LST via shading and ventilation. • High building density and coverage increase LST, especially in compact low-rise zones. • Random forest model identifies 3D urban morphology as key to LST variation. • Strategic spacing of high-rises and green integration reduces urban heat island effects. • Findings guide sustainable urban planning to mitigate heat stress in metropolitan areas. The spatial composition and three-dimensional (3D) configuration of buildings significantly influence land surface temperature (LST), playing a key role in urban heat island (UHI) mitigation and sustainable urban development. However, systematically quantifying these effects remains challenging due to limitations in data resolution. This study addresses this gap by analyzing LST variations in six representative urban areas in central Tokyo, incorporating multi-source remote sensing data and detailed building information. We applied spatial analysis and a random forest regression model to assess the relative importance of building characteristics on LST across different urban morphologies. The results indicate that building height and volume are negatively correlated with LST, suggesting that taller buildings with larger volumes may contribute to lower surface temperatures primarily through increased shading. In central Tokyo, urban planning regulations require that taller buildings meet specific Floor Area Ratio (FAR) and setback standards, particularly along major roads. These regulations ensure greater spacing and access to sunlight, which can also facilitate localized airflow. As such, the observed cooling effect may result from a combination of shading and planning-induced ventilation conditions, contingent upon building arrangement and surrounding open space. In contrast, higher building density and greater building coverage lead to increased LST, particularly in compact, low-rise residential areas. Among all variables, building height, volume, and density emerged as the most influential factors affecting LST, highlighting the critical role of urban morphology in regulating thermal environments. These findings provide quantitative insights into how 3D urban structures impact LST, offering evidence-based guidance for optimizing urban planning strategies to mitigate UHI effects. The insights gained from central Tokyo can be extended to inform sustainable urban development in other high-density metropolitan areas worldwide.