Ecological Status of the Small Rivers of the East Kazakhstan Region

The article presents a long-term assessment of the surface water quality of six small rivers in the East Kazakhstan region (Breksa, Tikhaya, Ulba, Glubochanka, Krasnoyarka, and Oba) based on hydrochemical monitoring data from the Kazhydromet State Enterprise for the period 2017–2024. A unified water quality classification system was applied, along with statistical methods, including multiple linear regression. The Glubochanka and Krasnoyarka rivers were identified as the most polluted (reaching classes 4–5), with multiple exceedances of Zn (up to 2.96 mg/dm3), Cd (up to 0.8 mg/dm3), and Cu (up to 0.051 mg/dm3). The most stable and highest water quality was recorded in the Oba River, where from 2021 to 2024, water consistently corresponded to Class 2. Regression models of water quality class as a function of time and annual precipitation were constructed to assess the influence of climatic factors. Statistical analysis revealed no consistent linear correlation between average annual precipitation and water quality (correlation coefficients ranging from −0.49 to +0.37), indicating a complex interplay between climatic and anthropogenic factors. Significant relationships were found for the Breksa (R2 = 0.903), Glubochanka (R2 = 0.602), and Tikhaya (R2 = 0.555) rivers, suggesting an influence of temporal and climatic factors on water quality. In contrast, the Oba (R2 = 0.130), Ulba (R2 = 0.100), and Krasnoyarka (R2 = 0.018) rivers exhibited low coefficients, indicating the predominance of other, likely local, sources of pollution. It was found that summer periods are characterized by the highest pollution due to low water flow, while episodes of acid runoff occur in spring. A decrease in pH below 7.0 was first recorded in 2023–2024 in the Ulba and Tikhaya rivers. Forecasts to 2030 suggest relative stability in water quality under current climatic conditions; however, by 2050, the risk of water quality deterioration is expected to rise due to increased precipitation and extreme weather events. This study presents, for the first time, a systematic long-term analysis of small rivers in the East Kazakhstan region, offering deeper insight into the dynamics of surface water quality and providing a scientific foundation for developing adaptive strategies for the protection and sustainable use of water resources under climate change and anthropogenic pressure. The results emphasize the importance of prioritizing rivers with high variability in water quality for regular monitoring and the development of adaptive conservation measures. The research holds strong applied significance for shaping a sustainable water use strategy in the region.