Green Port Collection and Distribution System in Low-Carbon Development: Scenario-Based System Dynamics

This study aims to explore the factors and mechanisms influencing the low-carbon development of Green Port Collection and Distribution Systems (GPCDSs) and to identify effective pathways and policy approaches to promote such development. Given the limited prior research integrating low-carbon policies, energy structure, and transportation systems, this study combines these three dimensions into a unified analytical framework. A scenario-based system dynamics model of GPCDS low-carbon development is established, incorporating factors such as low-carbon policies, energy structure, and transportation structure. The control variable method is employed to examine system behavior under 13 scenarios. The results indicate that freight subsidy policies and the internalization of carbon emission costs make the most substantial contributions to low-carbon development in GPCDS, yielding CO2 emission reductions of 14.3% and 15.7%, respectively. Additionally, improvements in port railway infrastructure contribute to a 6.4% reduction in CO2 emissions. In contrast, carbon taxes and energy structure adjustments have relatively limited effects, likely due to the delayed responsiveness of fossil fuel-dependent transportation sectors to pricing signals and the inherent inertia in transitioning energy systems.