Monitoring Forest Cover Trends in Nepal: Insights from 2000–2020

This study investigates the spatial relationship between population distribution and tree cover loss in Nepal from 2000 to 2020, using satellite-based forest cover and population data along with statistical and geospatial analysis. Two statistical methods—linear regression (LR) and Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR)—were used to assess the influence of population on forest cover change. The correlation between total population and forest loss at the national level suggested little to no direct impact of population growth on forest loss. However, sub-national analysis revealed localized forest degradation, highlighting the importance of spatial and regional assessments to uncover land cover changes masked by national trends. While LR showed a weak national-level correlation, GWR revealed substantial spatial variation, with the coefficient of determination values increasing from 0.21 in 2000 to 0.59 in 2020. In some regions, local R2 exceeded 0.75 during 2015 and 2020, highlighting emerging hotspot clusters where population pressure is strongly linked to deforestation, especially along major infrastructure corridors. Using very high-resolution spatial data enabled pixel-level analysis, capturing fine-scale deforestation patterns, and confirming hotspot accuracy. Overall, the findings emphasize the value of spatially explicit models like GWR for understanding human–environment interactions guiding targeted land use planning to balance development with environmental sustainability in Nepal.